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Cost Versus Enrollment Bubbles

Fall 2011

Introduction

Bubbles are a rare but increasingly frequent phenomenon. In their book Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Aliber document the most famous financial bubbles, including

  • the Dutch Tulip bubble in the 1630s

  • the South Sea Company bubble in 1720

  • Japanese and Nordic real estate and assets in the 1980s

  • the Dotcom bubble in the 1990s1

Recent events will undoubtedly add the recent housing bubble in the U.S. to the list. We argue that higher education in the United States is experiencing a bubble as well.

The Case for the Existence of a Bubble in Higher Education

The defining characteristic of a bubble is unsustainable growth that eventually reverses. Bubbles typically arise when uncertainty leads to unsustainable trends,2and we argue that there are two areas in which higher education has experienced what appear

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